Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Wilmington, NC
Wilmington clears a genuine payback here, inside a reasonable stretch of years. $1,000 is what Wilmington would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Wilmington's residents would see roughly $219 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 4.6 years. That's a real payback, built from Wilmington's own climate and utility rates, not a national guess.
Why Wilmington's climate drives this number
Wilmington has a mild winter by US standards — 1774 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2053 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 28.6°F here (record low 21.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.05 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. A standard ducted system is enough here; Wilmington's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. These numbers come from JOHN MERCER PIER, the closest NOAA station, 3.2 miles out.
Wilmington's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,473 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $481 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 18 Mcf a year at 16.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $701 a year (electricity here runs 14.93¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 50.1 years, leaving the 15-year total $2,291 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in Wilmington, compared
Gas isn't universal in Wilmington — many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. The saving here runs about $587 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 9.4 years.
Wilmington against the rest of the country
Among 3206 cities, Wilmington's winter puts it at rank 2550 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 233 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 125,284 people in Wilmington
About 125,284 people live in Wilmington, North Carolina, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 3.05 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. See what Wilmington's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.