HeatPumpPayback

Will a heat pump actually pay for itself here?

Payback depends on your climate and your energy prices, not a national average. This runs the numbers for 3,206 US cities using NOAA weather-station data and EIA state energy prices. Free, no email.

16% of the 3,206 cities here pay the extra cost back inside the 15-year life of the equipment
3.7yrs fastest payback anywhere — Honolulu, HI
84% do not — 2,681 cities where a heat pump costs more to run than gas, or saves too little to cover the extra cost inside 15 years. Those pages say so plainly.

Read this before you rely on it

Every figure here is a per-city estimate: NOAA weather-station data for your climate, EIA state-level rates for your energy prices, run through one documented model against a typical reference home. It is not a substitute for a quote from a licensed HVAC contractor, who prices against your actual house, ductwork and insulation rather than a reference one. Utility rates and equipment costs change; treat this as the question worth asking a contractor, not a replacement for asking one.

Why it swings that far

Your climate

A heat pump moves heat rather than burning fuel, so the colder the winter, the harder it works and the less efficient it gets. We use NOAA heating and cooling degree days from the weather station nearest each city, not a state average.

Your energy prices

You are trading gas for electricity, so the payback is really the ratio between the two where you live. Both come from EIA state-level prices, and that ratio varies more across the country than the weather does.

Run it for your city

3,206 US cities, each with its own weather station and state energy prices.

Where it pays back fastest

  1. 1 Honolulu, HI 3.7 yrs
  2. 2 Milton, FL 4.0 yrs
  3. 3 Palm Desert, CA 4.2 yrs
  4. 4 Cathedral City, CA 4.2 yrs
  5. 5 Palm Springs, CA 4.2 yrs
  6. 6 Desert Hot Springs, CA 4.2 yrs
  7. 7 Rancho Mirage, CA 4.2 yrs
  8. 8 Blythe, CA 4.4 yrs

Payback is the extra cost over replacing the furnace and AC like-for-like, divided by what it saves each year. No federal tax credit is assumed: the 25C heat pump credit ended for equipment installed after December 31, 2025. Every city page shows the full working.

Browse all 3,206 cities by state

The question this site answers

Every heat pump calculator online uses one national number for "savings." That number is meaningless, because the honest answer is entirely local: it depends on how cold your winters get, what electricity costs where you live, and what you are heating with today. HeatPumpPayback computes the real answer for 3206 US cities covering 51 states and roughly 186,164,571 people, and reports it against the replacement you would actually buy, not a heat pump bought for no reason against a furnace that still works.

It is allowed to say no

In cold, cheap-gas states like Minnesota or Maine, the model will tell you a heat pump costs more to run than what you have. That is not a bug, a site that always says yes is a sales pitch, not a calculator. Every figure traces to NOAA weather-station records and EIA state utility rates, both public and both cited on every page.

Start with your city

Search or browse to your city to see its degree days, design temperature, current utility rates, and the payback math worked through both against a gas furnace and against electric resistance heat.