About HeatPumpPayback
Why this exists
Most "heat pump savings" pages online quote one national number, which is close to meaningless: whether a heat pump saves money depends on how cold your winters get, what your utility charges for electricity and gas, and what you are heating with today. HeatPumpPayback replaces that one number with 3206 local estimates, each worked through the same published model so that any two cities can be compared directly.
What goes into the number
Climate figures (heating and cooling degree days, and the 99% winter design temperature used to size equipment) are calculated from a full calendar year, 2024, of daily readings at the NOAA weather station nearest each city, from NOAA's Global Surface Summary of the Day. Electricity prices come from the US Energy Information Administration's Electric Power Monthly (residential, by state) and natural gas prices from EIA's Natural Gas Navigator (residential, by state). Every constant the model assumes, from the reference house to the equipment prices, is listed in the methodology guide.
What it deliberately does not do
It does not assume a federal tax credit. The Section 25C heat pump credit ended for equipment installed after December 31, 2025, and the tax credit guide shows what that changed. It does not average a state into one figure. And it does not soften a bad answer: in cold places with cheap natural gas the model says plainly that a heat pump would cost more to run each year than the furnace it replaces, and those pages say so.
Known limits
One year of weather is not a 30-year climate normal, so an unusually mild or harsh 2024 at a given station moves that city's figures. Energy prices are state averages, not your utility's tariff. The house is a typical 2,000-square-foot existing home, not yours. These are the reasons every page tells you to get real quotes, and the guide to getting heat pump quotes explains what to ask for.
Corrections
If a city's climate figures, energy price or verdict look wrong, please say so through the contact page. Confirmed errors are fixed in the underlying data or model, which corrects every page that depends on it at once, rather than being patched on one page.
Who runs this
HeatPumpPayback is an independently run site. It is not affiliated with any heat pump manufacturer, HVAC contractor, utility or government agency, and no manufacturer or contractor pays to influence a verdict. The site is supported by advertising, as described in the privacy policy.