Heat Pump vs. Electric Baseboard, Not Gas
A different starting point, a different answer
Every city page runs two comparisons, because not every home has gas service. Electric baseboard heaters and electric furnaces turn one unit of electricity into one unit of heat. A heat pump moves heat rather than making it, so it delivers two to four units of heat for the same electricity. Against resistance heat, the heat pump saves money in 3,206 of the 3,206 cities covered, compared with 1,992 against gas.
The reversal, in real numbers
In 1,214 cities a heat pump costs more to run than gas but less than resistance heat. The largest swing is in Fairbanks, AK: about $2,077 a year more expensive than a gas furnace, but about $5,048 a year cheaper than resistance heat, paying back its extra cost in about 2 years. Anchorage, AK and Wasilla, AK show the same reversal.
Why the gap is so much bigger
Gas is cheap enough per unit of heat in many states that it stays competitive with a heat pump running at a mediocre winter efficiency. Resistance heat has no such cushion: even at a seasonal efficiency as low as 2.3, the lowest this model allows for a cold-climate unit, a heat pump uses well under half the electricity for the same warmth. The methodology guide has the arithmetic behind both comparisons.