Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Upland, CA
A heat pump earns back its extra cost in Upland within a sensible timeframe. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. That premium is recovered through $208 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 4.8 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what Upland actually pays for power and gas.
How cold Upland actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Upland racks up 1518 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1572 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 41°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 39.2°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.42 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Upland's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from CABLE, the closest NOAA station, 1.6 miles out.
Upland's running-cost comparison, in dollars
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 1,124 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $809 a year on electricity. That compares with roughly 16 Mcf a year of gas at Upland's 22.01 per-Mcf rate — about $1,017 a year — against a local electricity rate of 32.83¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 52.9 years, leaving the 15-year total $2,117 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Upland heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. The saving here runs about $1,122 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 4.9 years.
Upland against the rest of the country
Upland lands at position 2679 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 468 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 79,684 people in Upland
Upland, California is home to about 79,684 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Upland is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 3.42 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Upland's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.