Tucson, AZ: the heat pump payback math
Tucson is a clear case: a heat pump beats what you have by a wide margin. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. Lower bills claw that back: about $349 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 2.9 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from Tucson's own numbers.
The climate behind Tucson's payback figure
Tucson barely has a winter to speak of — 1430 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3738 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 28.2°F here (record low 27.7°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.04 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. A standard ducted system is enough here; Tucson's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB AIRPORT, 1.2 miles from Tucson — the closest one on record.
The month-to-month numbers for Tucson
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,191 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $681 a year. That compares with roughly 15 Mcf a year of gas at Tucson's 18.58 per-Mcf rate — about $1,030 a year — against a local electricity rate of 15.55¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 31.5 years, for a 15-year net position $4,238 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in Tucson heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Tucson's answer improves. About $636 a year comes back this way, enough that the 8.7-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Tucson against the rest of the country
Among 3206 cities, Tucson's winter puts it at rank 2712 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 33 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 554,013 people in Tucson
About 554,013 people live in Tucson, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Tucson's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page — the 3.04 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. See what Tucson's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.