Tamarac, FL: the heat pump payback math
In Tamarac, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. $1,000 is what Tamarac would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $352 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 2.8 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from Tamarac's own numbers.
The climate behind Tamarac's payback figure
Tamarac barely has a winter to speak of — 65 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 4997 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 50°F here (record low 48.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.69 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. A standard ducted system is enough here; Tamarac's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, FT LAUDER EXECUTIVE ARPT, 5.3 miles from Tamarac.
The month-to-month numbers for Tamarac
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 45 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $664 a year on electricity. That compares with roughly 1 Mcf a year of gas at Tamarac's 25.48 per-Mcf rate — about $1,017 a year — against a local electricity rate of 15.43¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 31.2 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,283 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Tamarac has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $360 a year comes back this way, enough that the 15.3-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Tamarac ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Tamarac comes in at 3159 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 512 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 75,147 people in Tamarac
About 75,147 people live in Tamarac, Florida, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Tamarac's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Tamarac's 3.69 seasonal COP and payback figure. See what Tamarac's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.