Should South Houston switch to a heat pump?
A heat pump earns back its extra cost in South Houston within a sensible timeframe. $1,000 is what South Houston would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Lower bills claw that back: about $329 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 3 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what South Houston actually pays for power and gas.
How cold South Houston actually gets
South Houston barely has a winter to speak of — 722 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3867 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 32°F, against a record low of 19.9°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.15 for the recommended standard unit. South Houston's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station WILLIAM P. HOBBY AIRPORT, 3.6 miles from South Houston — the closest one on record.
The month-to-month numbers for South Houston
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 580 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $626 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 8 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $955 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 33.4 years, for a 15-year net position $3,938 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in South Houston heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $478 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $5,500 spent up front comes back in about 11.5 years.
Where South Houston ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, South Houston comes in at 2985 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 2282 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 16,146 people in South Houston
South Houston, Texas is home to about 16,146 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, South Houston is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where South Houston's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind South Houston's 3.15 seasonal COP and payback figure. The $2,000 federal credit baked into South Houston's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.