Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Selma, TX
The math in Selma isn't close — a heat pump wins outright. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. Selma's residents would see roughly $336 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 3 years. That verdict holds specifically for Selma's own climate and rates, not a national average.
How cold Selma actually gets
1011 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Selma barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 3754 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. 27.3°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 16.2°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.01 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Selma's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station RANDOLPH AFB AIRPORT, 4.9 miles from Selma — the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 850 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $654 a year. That compares with roughly 11 Mcf a year of gas at Selma's 19.42 per-Mcf rate — about $990 a year — against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 32.7 years, for a 15-year net position $4,039 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Selma has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Selma's answer improves. The saving here runs about $545 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 10.1 years.
Where Selma ranks in this dataset
Selma lands at position 2908 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 2821 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Deciding what's next in Selma, TX
Selma, Texas is home to about 11,900 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Selma is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Selma's 3.01 seasonal COP and payback figure. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Selma's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.