Seguin, TX: the heat pump payback math
In Seguin, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. That premium is recovered through $333 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 3 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from Seguin's own numbers.
Why Seguin's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Seguin racks up 1026 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 3725 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 26.1°F, against a record low of 15.1°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.98 for the recommended standard unit. A standard ducted system is enough here; Seguin's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. These numbers come from NEW BRAUNFELS MUNICIPAL AP, the closest NOAA station, 9.4 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Seguin
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 872 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $654 a year. Seguin's gas rate of 19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 11 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $987 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 33 years; over 15 years the net position sits $4,002 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in Seguin heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $546 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $5,500 spent up front comes back in about 10.1 years.
Where Seguin ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Seguin comes in at 2892 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1060 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 38,789 people in Seguin
About 38,789 people live in Seguin, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 2.98 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. See what Seguin's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.