Will a heat pump pay off in San Juan, TX?
The math in San Juan isn't close — a heat pump wins outright. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $1,000 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). That premium is recovered through $381 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 2.6 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from San Juan's own numbers.
Why San Juan's climate drives this number
San Juan barely has a winter to speak of — 319 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 4957 cooling degree days. 39°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 27°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.36 on the standard unit fit for this climate. A standard ducted system is enough here; San Juan's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. These numbers come from MC ALLEN MILLER INTL ARPT, the closest NOAA station, 6.3 miles out.
San Juan's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 240 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $721 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 3 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,102 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 28.9 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,710 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in San Juan, compared
Plenty of homes in San Juan heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and San Juan's answer improves. About $447 a year comes back this way, enough that the 12.3-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
How San Juan compares nationally
San Juan lands at position 3116 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 1113 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 37,341 people in San Juan
About 37,341 people live in San Juan, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
More on how this number was built
Every constant behind this page — the 3.36 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. See what San Juan's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.