Heat pump vs. gas furnace in San Antonio, TX
The math in San Antonio isn't close — a heat pump wins outright. $1,000 is what San Antonio would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Lower bills claw that back: about $337 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 3 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from San Antonio's own numbers.
The climate behind San Antonio's payback figure
1016 heating degree days pile up here every year, so San Antonio barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 3775 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 27°F here (record low 18°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. A standard ducted system is enough here; San Antonio's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIR, 6.1 miles from San Antonio — the closest one on record.
San Antonio's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 858 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $658 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 11 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $996 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 32.6 years, for a 15-year net position $4,059 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in San Antonio has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $547 a year comes back this way, enough that the 10-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
How San Antonio compares nationally
San Antonio lands at position 2894 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 7 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 1,526,656 people in San Antonio
About 1,526,656 people live in San Antonio, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where San Antonio's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind San Antonio's 3 seasonal COP and payback figure. See what San Antonio's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.