Roseburg, OR: the heat pump payback math
A heat pump earns back its extra cost in Roseburg within a sensible timeframe. $1,000 is what Roseburg would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Lower bills claw that back: about $234 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 4.3 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what Roseburg actually pays for power and gas.
Roseburg's weather, in the numbers that matter
3708 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Roseburg has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 727 cooling degree days, where summers add a moderate cooling load. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 30°F here (record low 28.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.09 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Roseburg's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, ROSEBURG REGIONAL AIRPORT, 1.1 miles from Roseburg.
Roseburg's running-cost comparison, in dollars
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 3,039 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $554 a year on electricity. Roseburg's gas rate of 16.71 per Mcf, applied to the 39 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $788 a year, against 15.14¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 47 years, leaving the 15-year total $2,511 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Gas isn't universal in Roseburg — many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Roseburg's answer improves. Switching saves about $1,010 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $5,500 spent up front comes back in about 5.4 years.
How Roseburg compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, Roseburg's winter puts it at rank 1675 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1668 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
What to do with this number in Roseburg
Roseburg, Oregon is home to about 23,795 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Roseburg is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Roseburg's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Roseburg's 3.09 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Roseburg's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.