Should Robstown switch to a heat pump?
In Robstown, a heat pump pays for itself within a reasonable window. $1,000 is what Robstown would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Lower bills claw that back: about $330 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 3 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what Robstown actually pays for power and gas.
How cold Robstown actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Robstown racks up 574 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 4007 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 33.4°F here (record low 22.1°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.2 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Robstown's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from NUECES COUNTY ARIPORT, the closest NOAA station, 1.7 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 454 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $625 a year. Robstown's gas rate of 19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 6 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $955 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 33.4 years; over 15 years the net position sits $3,945 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Robstown has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Robstown's answer improves. The saving here runs about $448 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 12.3 years.
Robstown against the rest of the country
Robstown lands at position 3036 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 3111 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Deciding what's next in Robstown, TX
Robstown, Texas is home to about 10,383 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Robstown is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Robstown's 3.2 seasonal COP and payback figure. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Robstown's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.