Will a heat pump pay off in Peoria, AZ?
In Peoria, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. $1,000 is what Peoria would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Peoria's residents would see roughly $384 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 2.6 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from Peoria's own numbers.
The climate behind Peoria's payback figure
Peoria barely has a winter to speak of — 1212 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 4406 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 30°F, against a record low of 30°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.09 for the recommended standard unit. A standard ducted system is enough here; Peoria's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, PHOENIX DEER VALLEY ARPT, 14.7 miles from Peoria.
The month-to-month numbers for Peoria
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 993 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $739 a year. That compares with roughly 13 Mcf a year of gas at Peoria's 18.58 per-Mcf rate — about $1,122 a year — against a local electricity rate of 15.55¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 28.7 years, for a 15-year net position $4,758 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Peoria has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $627 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 8.8 years.
How Peoria compares nationally
Peoria lands at position 2797 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 129 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 199,924 people in Peoria
About 199,924 people live in Peoria, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Every constant behind this page — the 3.09 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. See what Peoria's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.