Heat Pump Payback in Mission, TX
Will a heat pump pay off in Mission, TX?
In Mission, a heat pump pays for itself within a reasonable window. $3,000 is what Mission would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Lower bills claw that back: about $381 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 7.9 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what Mission actually pays for power and gas.
Not the city you meant?
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Mission. Look one up here.
How cold Mission actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Mission racks up 319 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 4957 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 39°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 27°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.36 for the recommended standard unit. Mission's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium, a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from Mc Allen Miller International Airport, the closest NOAA station, 4.6 miles out.
Mission's running-cost comparison, in dollars
On a typical 2000-square-foot house, heating needs here are close to nil, so the heat pump's electric bill, near $721 a year, is almost entirely air conditioning. Heating barely registers here, a gas furnace would burn about 3 Mcf a year at $19.42 per Mcf, so nearly all of the $1,102 a year the existing setup costs to run is the old air conditioner. At 16.15¢/kWh, the saving in Mission comes from the heat pump being a more efficient air conditioner, not from heating. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $2,710 ahead.
How sensitive Mission's result is to prices
In Mission the cooling savings outweigh the extra electricity for heating, so no plausible change in the electricity rate would make the old furnace and AC cheaper to run. A useful quote test for Mission: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,810 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,667.
Electric resistance heat in Mission, compared
Plenty of homes in Mission heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Mission's answer improves. The gap still doesn't close: the $7,500 incremental cost outlasts the 15-year equipment life here even against resistance heat.
Mission against the rest of the country
Mission lands at position 3114 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 403 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Mission
Mission, Texas is home to about 88,574 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Mission is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Mission's 3.36 seasonal COP and payback figure. Homes in Mission without gas service should read the electric-resistance comparison instead, the numbers there differ from the gas case above.