Will a heat pump pay off in Mission, TX?

In Mission, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. $1,000 is what Mission would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Lower bills claw that back: about $381 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 2.6 years. That verdict holds specifically for Mission's own climate and rates, not a national average.

How cold Mission actually gets

Degree days tell the story here: Mission racks up 319 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 4957 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 39°F, against a record low of 27°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.36 for the recommended standard unit. Mission's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from MC ALLEN MILLER INTL ARPT, the closest NOAA station, 4.6 miles out.

Mission's running-cost comparison, in dollars

Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 240 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $721 a year. That compares with roughly 3 Mcf a year of gas at Mission's 19.42 per-Mcf rate — about $1,102 a year — against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 28.9 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,710 ahead.

Electric resistance heat in Mission, compared

Plenty of homes in Mission heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Mission's answer improves. The saving here runs about $447 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 12.3 years.

Mission against the rest of the country

Mission lands at position 3114 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 403 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.

What to do with this number in Mission

Mission, Texas is home to about 88,574 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Mission is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.

Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.

More on how this number was built

Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Mission's 3.36 seasonal COP and payback figure. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Mission's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.