Heat Pump Payback in Kerman, CA
Kerman, CA: the heat pump payback math
This one's marginal in Kerman: it only clears if you stay long enough. $3,000 is what Kerman would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Kerman's residents would see roughly $231 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 13 years. It's a genuine toss-up here, Kerman's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Compare against another city
Kerman is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Kerman's weather, in the numbers that matter
Kerman has a mild winter by US standards, 2176 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2183 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 30°F here (coldest 2024 reading 28°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.09 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Kerman's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium, a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station Madera Municipal Airport, 18.4 miles from Kerman, the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,783 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,196 a year. That compares with roughly 23 Mcf a year of gas at Kerman's $22.01 per-Mcf rate, about $1,428 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 32.83¢/kWh. Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $467 ahead.
The break-even point in Kerman
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Kerman if electricity rose past 61.2¢/kWh from 32.83¢, or gas fell under $11.81 per Mcf from $22.01. A useful quote test for Kerman: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $2,310 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $1,617.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in Kerman heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $1,541 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $7,500 spent up front comes back in about 4.9 years.
Kerman against the rest of the country
Kerman lands at position 2345 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 2139 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Kerman
Kerman, California is home to about 17,497 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Kerman, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Kerman's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page, the 3.09 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Homes in Kerman without gas service should read the electric-resistance comparison instead, the numbers there differ from the gas case above.