Heat Pump Payback in Henderson, NV
Henderson, NV: the heat pump payback math
This one's marginal in Henderson: it only clears if you stay long enough. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,000 more up front here. Henderson's residents would see roughly $294 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 10.2 years. It's a genuine toss-up here, Henderson's numbers don't point clearly either way.
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This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Henderson. Look one up here.
How cold Henderson actually gets
2199 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Henderson has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 4069 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 27°F here (coldest 2024 reading 25°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Henderson's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium, a standard unit holds up fine. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Henderson Executive Airport, 6.4 miles from Henderson.
Henderson's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,856 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $748 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 23 Mcf a year at $13.14 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,041 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 14.04¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $1,404 ahead.
What would change Henderson's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Henderson if electricity rose past 578.8¢/kWh from 14.04¢, or gas fell under $0.32 per Mcf from $13.14. A useful quote test for Henderson: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $2,940 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,058.
Electric resistance heat in Henderson, compared
Gas isn't universal in Henderson, many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $774 a year comes back this way, enough that the 9.7-year payback clears the $7,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Henderson ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Henderson comes in at 2324 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 55 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Henderson
Henderson, Nevada is home to about 350,039 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Henderson, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page, the 3 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Homes in Henderson without gas service should read the electric-resistance comparison instead, the numbers there differ from the gas case above.