Heat Pump Payback in Goodyear, AZ
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Goodyear, AZ
A heat pump earns back its extra cost in Goodyear within a sensible timeframe. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,000 more up front here. Goodyear's residents would see roughly $418 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 7.2 years. That's a real payback, built from Goodyear's own climate and utility rates, not a national guess.
Checking a different city
Goodyear is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
The climate behind Goodyear's payback figure
Goodyear barely has a winter to speak of, 730 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 5318 cooling degree days. 33.8°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 30.2°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.21 on the standard unit fit for this climate. A standard ducted system is enough here; Goodyear's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station Phoenix Goodyear Airport, 11.3 miles from Goodyear, the closest one on record.
The yearly running costs in Goodyear
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 576 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $795 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 8 Mcf a year at $18.58 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,213 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 15.55¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $3,275 ahead.
What would change Goodyear's answer
Because the heat pump's better air conditioning saves more electricity than its heating uses, it stays cheaper to run than the current furnace and AC in Goodyear at any electricity price. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $418 a year saved, a difference under $2,926 pays back within 7 years here, and under $4,180 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Goodyear, compared
Not every home in Goodyear has gas service. Against electric-resistance heat, baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance, the case for switching gets stronger here. About $565 a year comes back this way, enough that the 13.3-year payback clears the $7,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
How Goodyear compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Goodyear comes in at 2983 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 255 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Goodyear
About 118,186 people live in Goodyear, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Every constant behind this page, the 3.21 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Not every home in Goodyear has gas; the guide comparing a heat pump against electric baseboard covers that case separately.