Florence, AZ: the heat pump payback math
The math in Florence isn't close — a heat pump wins outright. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. Lower bills claw that back: about $401 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 2.5 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from Florence's own numbers.
The climate behind Florence's payback figure
1399 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Florence barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 4472 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 30.2°F, against a record low of 28.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.1 for the recommended standard unit. A standard ducted system is enough here; Florence's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT, 21.6 miles from Florence — the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,143 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $771 a year. Florence's gas rate of 18.58 per Mcf, applied to the 15 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $1,172 a year, against 15.55¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 27.4 years, for a 15-year net position $5,020 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in Florence, compared
Gas isn't universal in Florence — many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. The saving here runs about $681 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 8.1 years.
Florence against the rest of the country
Among 3206 cities, Florence's winter puts it at rank 2725 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1613 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 24,891 people in Florence
About 24,891 people live in Florence, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Florence's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Florence's 3.1 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. See what Florence's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.