Should Eloy switch to a heat pump?
In Eloy, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. $1,000 is what Eloy would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $350 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 2.9 years. That verdict holds specifically for Eloy's own climate and rates, not a national average.
How cold Eloy actually gets
1396 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Eloy barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 3813 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. 27°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 27°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Eloy's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, CASA GRANDE MUNICIPAL ARPT, 17.6 miles from Eloy.
Eloy's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,178 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $689 a year. Eloy's gas rate of 18.58 per Mcf, applied to the 15 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $1,039 a year, against 15.55¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 31.4 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,247 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Eloy heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $629 a year comes back this way, enough that the 8.7-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Eloy ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Eloy's winter puts it at rank 2730 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1992 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 19,199 people in Eloy
Eloy, Arizona is home to about 19,199 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Eloy is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 3 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Eloy's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.