El Paso, TX: the heat pump payback math
El Paso is a clear case: a heat pump beats what you have by a wide margin. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $1,000 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. El Paso's residents would see roughly $347 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 2.9 years. Nothing about that conclusion is generic — it's built entirely from El Paso's own numbers.
Why El Paso's climate drives this number
El Paso has a mild winter by US standards — 1774 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3223 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 26.4°F, against a record low of 21.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.99 for the recommended standard unit. A standard ducted system is enough here; El Paso's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station BIGGS AAF / FT BLISS TEXAS US, 3 miles from El Paso — the closest one on record.
El Paso's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,502 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $686 a year. El Paso's gas rate of 19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 18 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $1,033 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 31.7 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,204 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in El Paso, compared
Not every home in El Paso has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and El Paso's answer improves. The saving here runs about $714 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 7.7 years.
How El Paso compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, El Paso comes in at 2549 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 23 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 681,723 people in El Paso
About 681,723 people live in El Paso, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how El Paso's 2.99 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. See what El Paso's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.