Heat Pump Payback in El Paso, TX
El Paso, TX: the heat pump payback math
El Paso sits right on the fence, how long you'll own the house decides this one. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,000. El Paso's residents would see roughly $347 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 8.6 years. Whether that's worth it in El Paso depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Checking a different city
El Paso is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Why El Paso's climate drives this number
El Paso has a mild winter by US standards, 1774 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3223 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 26.4°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 21.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.99 for the recommended standard unit. A standard ducted system is enough here; El Paso's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Source: NOAA station Biggs Aaf / Ft Bliss Texas US, 3 miles from El Paso, the closest one on record.
El Paso's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,502 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $686 a year. El Paso's gas rate of $19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 18 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $1,033 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $2,204 ahead.
How sensitive El Paso's result is to prices
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 489.0¢/kWh (it is 16.15¢ now) or gas drops below $0.64 per Mcf (now $19.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in El Paso. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $347 a year saved, a difference under $2,429 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,470 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in El Paso, compared
Not every home in El Paso has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and El Paso's answer improves. The saving here runs about $714 a year, which recovers the extra $7,500 spent going electric in roughly 10.5 years.
How El Paso compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, El Paso comes in at 2549 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 23 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in El Paso
About 681,723 people live in El Paso, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how El Paso's 2.99 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Not every home in El Paso has gas; the guide comparing a heat pump against electric baseboard covers that case separately.