Will a heat pump pay off in Covina, CA?

Covina clears a genuine payback here, inside a reasonable stretch of years. $1,000 is what Covina would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Covina's residents would see roughly $251 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 4 years. The window here is reasonable, and it's specific to what Covina actually pays for power and gas.

Covina's weather, in the numbers that matter

Degree days tell the story here: Covina racks up 1219 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1906 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 37.4°F here (record low 35.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.31 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Covina's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station BRACKETT FIELD AIRPORT, 5.7 miles from Covina — the closest one on record.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 933 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $840 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 13 Mcf a year at 22.01 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,090 a year (electricity here runs 32.83¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 43.9 years, leaving the 15-year total $2,761 ahead.

If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas

Not every home in Covina has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Covina's answer improves. The saving here runs about $985 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 5.6 years.

Where Covina ranks in this dataset

Among 3206 cities, Covina's winter puts it at rank 2790 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 835 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.

Next step for 49,245 people in Covina

Covina, California is home to about 49,245 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Covina is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.

Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.

More on how this number was built

The methodology guide walks through exactly how Covina's 3.31 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Covina's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.