Heat Pump Payback in Covina, CA
Will a heat pump pay off in Covina, CA?
Covina sits right on the fence, how long you'll own the house decides this one. $3,000 is what Covina would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Covina's residents would see roughly $251 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 12 years. It's a genuine toss-up here, Covina's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Compare against another city
Covina is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Covina's weather, in the numbers that matter
Degree days tell the story here: Covina racks up 1219 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1906 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 37.4°F here (coldest 2024 reading 35.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.31 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Covina's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium, a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station Brackett Field Airport, 5.7 miles from Covina, the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 933 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $840 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 13 Mcf a year at $22.01 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,090 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 32.83¢/kWh). If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $761 ahead.
How sensitive Covina's result is to prices
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Covina if electricity rose past 319.5¢/kWh from 32.83¢, or gas fell under $2.26 per Mcf from $22.01. A useful quote test for Covina: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $2,510 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $1,757.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Covina has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Covina's answer improves. The saving here runs about $985 a year, which recovers the extra $7,500 spent going electric in roughly 7.6 years.
Where Covina ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Covina's winter puts it at rank 2790 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 835 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Covina
Covina, California is home to about 49,245 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Covina, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Covina's 3.31 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Homes in Covina without gas service should read the electric-resistance comparison instead, the numbers there differ from the gas case above.