Heat Pump Payback in Clovis, CA
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Clovis, CA
This one's marginal in Clovis: it only clears if you stay long enough. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,000. That premium is recovered through $357 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 8.4 years. It's a genuine toss-up here, Clovis's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Not the city you meant?
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Clovis. Look one up here.
Clovis's weather, in the numbers that matter
1958 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Clovis has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 2853 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. 34°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 33.1°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.21 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Clovis's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium, a standard unit holds up fine. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Fresno Yosemite International, 3.9 miles from Clovis.
Clovis's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,545 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,306 a year. That compares with roughly 20 Mcf a year of gas at Clovis's $22.01 per-Mcf rate, about $1,663 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 32.83¢/kWh. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $2,356 ahead.
What would change Clovis's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Clovis if electricity rose past 160.5¢/kWh from 32.83¢, or gas fell under $4.50 per Mcf from $22.01. A useful quote test for Clovis: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,570 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,499.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Gas isn't universal in Clovis, many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,536 a year, which recovers the extra $7,500 spent going electric in roughly 4.9 years.
Where Clovis ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Clovis comes in at 2444 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 227 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Clovis
Clovis, California is home to about 127,993 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Clovis, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Clovis's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Clovis's 3.21 seasonal COP and payback figure. Homes in Clovis without gas service should read the electric-resistance comparison instead, the numbers there differ from the gas case above.