Should Cibolo switch to a heat pump?
The math in Cibolo isn't close — a heat pump wins outright. $1,000 is what Cibolo would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $336 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 3 years. That verdict holds specifically for Cibolo's own climate and rates, not a national average.
Cibolo's weather, in the numbers that matter
1011 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Cibolo barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 3754 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. 27.3°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 16.2°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.01 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Cibolo's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from RANDOLPH AFB AIRPORT, the closest NOAA station, 3.5 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Cibolo
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 850 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $654 a year on electricity. That compares with roughly 11 Mcf a year of gas at Cibolo's 19.42 per-Mcf rate — about $990 a year — against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 32.7 years, for a 15-year net position $4,039 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Cibolo has gas service. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. About $545 a year comes back this way, enough that the 10.1-year payback clears the $5,500 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Cibolo ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Cibolo comes in at 2904 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1097 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 37,816 people in Cibolo
Cibolo, Texas is home to about 37,816 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Cibolo is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Cibolo's 3.01 seasonal COP and payback figure. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Cibolo's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.