Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Arcadia, CA
A heat pump earns back its extra cost in Arcadia within a sensible timeframe. $1,000 is what Arcadia would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $323 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 3.1 years. That's a real payback, built from Arcadia's own climate and utility rates, not a national guess.
The climate behind Arcadia's payback figure
Arcadia barely has a winter to speak of — 686 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2300 cooling degree days. 39.2°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 37.4°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.37 on the standard unit fit for this climate. A standard ducted system is enough here; Arcadia's design temperature doesn't justify the cold-climate premium. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, EL MONTE AIRPORT, 3.4 miles from Arcadia.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 515 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $813 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 7 Mcf a year at 22.01 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,136 a year (electricity here runs 32.83¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 34.1 years, leaving the 15-year total $3,842 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Arcadia has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Arcadia's answer improves. Switching saves about $736 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $5,500 spent up front comes back in about 7.5 years.
Arcadia against the rest of the country
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Arcadia comes in at 3003 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 751 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Arcadia
About 54,472 people live in Arcadia, California, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, it's worth getting quotes before your current system fails, not after.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Arcadia's 3.37 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. See what Arcadia's figure looks like without the $2,000 federal credit in the guide to how that credit moves the payback window.