Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Alton, TX
In Alton, a heat pump is the cheaper choice, and not by a little. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $1,000 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). Lower bills claw that back: about $381 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 2.6 years. That verdict holds specifically for Alton's own climate and rates, not a national average.
How cold Alton actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Alton racks up 319 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 4957 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 39°F here (record low 27°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.36 for the standard class of unit this climate calls for. Alton's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. Source: NOAA station MC ALLEN MILLER INTL ARPT, 8 miles from Alton — the closest one on record.
Alton's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 240 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $721 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 3 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,102 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 28.9 years, leaving the 15-year total $4,710 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Alton has gas service. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $447 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $5,500 spent up front comes back in about 12.3 years.
Where Alton ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Alton comes in at 3117 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1726 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Deciding what's next in Alton, TX
Alton, Texas is home to about 22,907 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. Given the math above, Alton is a place worth lining up quotes ahead of a breakdown, not waiting for one.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Alton's 3.36 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. The $2,000 federal credit baked into Alton's number is explained, with the before-and-after math, in the tax credit guide.