Heat Pump Payback in Wilmington, OH
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Wilmington, OH
Wilmington technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. Lower bills claw that back: about $13 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 432.3 years. Wilmington's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Checking a different city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Wilmington. Look one up here.
Why Wilmington's climate drives this number
4182 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Wilmington has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 1142 cooling degree days, where summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 6.1°F here (coldest 2024 reading 3.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.85 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Wilmington sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from Airborne Airpark Airport, the closest NOAA station, 2.1 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 3,716 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $863 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 44 Mcf a year at $13.85 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $876 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 18.40¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $5,309 behind.
What would change Wilmington's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 18.8¢/kWh (it is 18.40¢ now) or gas drops below $13.56 per Mcf (now $13.85); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Wilmington. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $13 a year saved, a difference under $91 pays back within 7 years here, and under $130 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Wilmington, compared
Gas isn't universal in Wilmington, many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $1,358 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 7.4 years.
Where Wilmington ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Wilmington comes in at 1412 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 2710 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step if you live in Wilmington
About 12,639 people live in Wilmington, Ohio, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Wilmington's 2.85 seasonal COP and payback figure. Wilmington's 6.1°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.