Heat Pump Payback in Williston, ND
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Williston, ND
Williston is a place where a heat pump genuinely costs more to operate than the alternative. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. The heat pump would cost about $238 more a year to run than the furnace it replaces, a premium with no payback. There's no spin on that: Williston's numbers say wait.
Not the city you meant?
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Williston. Look one up here.
The climate behind Williston's payback figure
Degree days tell the story here: Williston racks up 8137 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers add a moderate cooling load, with 469 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: -18.4°F here (coldest 2024 reading -32.8°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.3 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Williston, below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. These numbers come from Watford City Municipal Airpor, the closest NOAA station, 32.8 miles out.
The yearly running costs in Williston
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 8,958 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,115 a year. Williston's gas rate of $9.50 per Mcf, applied to the 85 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $878 a year, against 11.92¢ per kWh for electricity. With running costs higher every year, there is no payback at any purchase price; over 15 years, against a like-for-like replacement, a household here would end $9,070 behind.
The break-even point in Williston
The heat pump would become the cheaper option in Williston if electricity fell to 9.2¢/kWh (from 11.92¢) or gas rose above $12.31 per Mcf (from $9.50). At today's prices a cheaper quote cannot rescue the gas comparison in Williston, since there is no yearly saving to recover it from.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Williston has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Williston's answer improves. About $1,413 a year comes back this way, enough that the 7.1-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Williston ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Williston's winter puts it at rank 10 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1393 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step if you live in Williston
About 28,821 people live in Williston, North Dakota, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Williston's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Williston's 2.3 seasonal COP and payback figure. At a -18.4°F design temperature, Williston sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.