Waupun, WI: the heat pump payback math

In Waupun, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. $3,500 is what Waupun would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Running costs here land $468 a year HIGHER than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. That's Waupun's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.

Waupun's weather, in the numbers that matter

Waupun has a cold winter that leans hard on heating equipment — 6257 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers add a moderate cooling load, at 454 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is -9°F, against a record low of -11.6°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.48 for the recommended cold-climate unit. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Waupun — below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, DODGE COUNTY AIRPORT, 14.3 miles from Waupun.

Waupun's running-cost comparison, in dollars

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 6,389 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,279 a year. That compares with roughly 65 Mcf a year of gas at Waupun's 10.74 per-Mcf rate — about $811 a year — against a local electricity rate of 18.87¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is longer than the 15-year equipment life, leaving the 15-year total $10,515 behind.

The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with

Plenty of homes in Waupun heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. The saving here runs about $1,822 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 4.4 years.

Where Waupun ranks in this dataset

Waupun lands at position 131 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 2961 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.

Next step for 11,131 people in Waupun

Waupun, Wisconsin is home to about 11,131 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Waupun, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.

Reading further on this page's numbers

Every constant behind this page — the 2.48 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Waupun's -9°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.