Will a heat pump pay off in Waco, TX?
In Waco, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). Lower bills claw that back: about $334 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 10.5 years. It's a genuine toss-up here — Waco's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Waco's weather, in the numbers that matter
Degree days tell the story here: Waco racks up 1622 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 3089 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 16°F here (record low 12°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.08 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Waco needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT, 4.8 miles from Waco.
The month-to-month numbers for Waco
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,333 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $641 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 17 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $975 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 40.4 years; over 15 years the net position sits $1,508 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in Waco heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $669 a year comes back this way, enough that the 12-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Waco against the rest of the country
Among 3206 cities, Waco's winter puts it at rank 2640 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 191 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 146,608 people in Waco
Waco, Texas is home to about 146,608 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Waco, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Waco's 3.08 seasonal COP and payback figure. Waco's 16°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.