Vermilion, OH: the heat pump payback math
In Vermilion, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). Running costs here land $25 a year HIGHER than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. That's Vermilion's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.
Vermilion's weather, in the numbers that matter
Vermilion has a real but manageable winter — 4805 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers add a moderate cooling load, at 927 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 5°F, against a record low of 1.9°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.82 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Vermilion needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from LORAIN COUNTY RGNL AIRPORT, the closest NOAA station, 8.4 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Vermilion
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 4,315 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $939 a year. That compares with roughly 50 Mcf a year of gas at Vermilion's 13.85 per-Mcf rate — about $914 a year — against a local electricity rate of 18.40¢/kWh. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to beyond the 15-year equipment life; over 15 years the net position sits $3,877 behind.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Plenty of homes in Vermilion heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $1,520 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 5.3 years.
Where Vermilion ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Vermilion's winter puts it at rank 952 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 3044 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step for 10,733 people in Vermilion
Vermilion, Ohio is home to about 10,733 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Vermilion, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Vermilion's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Vermilion's 2.82 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Vermilion's 5°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.