Should Vancouver switch to a heat pump?
In Vancouver, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. $3,500 is what Vancouver would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Vancouver's residents would see roughly $309 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 11.3 years. Whether that's worth it in Vancouver depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
The climate behind Vancouver's payback figure
3851 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Vancouver has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 637 cooling degree days, where summers add a moderate cooling load. 19.9°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 15.1°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.18 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Vancouver needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR, 2.9 miles from Vancouver.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 3,066 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $515 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 40 Mcf a year at 17.62 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $824 a year (electricity here runs 14.27¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 43.6 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,141 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in Vancouver, compared
Plenty of homes in Vancouver heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $994 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 8 years.
How Vancouver compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Vancouver comes in at 1614 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 130 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step for 198,992 people in Vancouver
About 198,992 people live in Vancouver, Washington, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Vancouver's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Vancouver's 3.18 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Vancouver's 19.9°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.