Heat Pump Payback in Texarkana, TX
Texarkana, TX: the heat pump payback math
Texarkana technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Lower bills claw that back: about $343 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 16 years. Texarkana's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Compare against another city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Texarkana. Look one up here.
The climate behind Texarkana's payback figure
Texarkana has a mild winter by US standards, 1769 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3023 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 18°F here (coldest 2024 reading 10.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.13 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 18°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Texarkana. These numbers come from Texarkana Regional Airport-We, the closest NOAA station, 5.6 miles out.
Texarkana's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,431 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $647 a year. That compares with roughly 18 Mcf a year of gas at Texarkana's $19.42 per-Mcf rate, about $991 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $353 behind.
The break-even point in Texarkana
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 394.0¢/kWh (it is 16.15¢ now) or gas drops below $0.80 per Mcf (now $19.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Texarkana. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $343 a year saved, a difference under $2,401 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,430 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Texarkana, compared
Not every home in Texarkana has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $709 a year comes back this way, enough that the 14.1-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Texarkana ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Texarkana's winter puts it at rank 2553 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1146 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Texarkana
About 35,971 people live in Texarkana, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Texarkana's 3.13 seasonal COP and payback figure. At a 18°F design temperature, Texarkana sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.