Heat Pump Payback in St. Matthews, KY
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in St. Matthews, KY
St. Matthews technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. St. Matthews's residents would see roughly $162 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 33.9 years. St. Matthews's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Checking a different city
St. Matthews is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Why St. Matthews's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: St. Matthews racks up 3632 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1460 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 5°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 1.9°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 2.82 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, St. Matthews sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from Bowman Field Airport, the closest NOAA station, 2 miles out.
St. Matthews's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,261 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $648 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 38 Mcf a year at $14.23 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $811 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 14.39¢/kWh). If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $3,068 behind.
The break-even point in St. Matthews
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 20.6¢/kWh (it is 14.39¢ now) or gas drops below $9.94 per Mcf (now $14.23); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in St. Matthews. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $162 a year saved, a difference under $1,134 pays back within 7 years here, and under $1,620 within 10.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Gas isn't universal in St. Matthews, many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and St. Matthews's answer improves. About $947 a year comes back this way, enough that the 10.6-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where St. Matthews ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, St. Matthews's winter puts it at rank 1728 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2115 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step if you live in St. Matthews
About 17,806 people live in St. Matthews, Kentucky, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide walks through exactly how St. Matthews's 2.82 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. St. Matthews's 5°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.