Should Show Low switch to a heat pump?
In Show Low, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. That premium is recovered through $339 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 10.3 years. Whether that's worth it in Show Low depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Why Show Low's climate drives this number
4868 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Show Low has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 982 cooling degree days, where summers add a moderate cooling load. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 6.8°F here (record low -38.2°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.86 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Show Low needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station SHOW LOW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, 1.7 miles from Show Low — the closest one on record.
The month-to-month numbers for Show Low
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 4,310 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $800 a year on electricity. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 51 Mcf a year at 18.58 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,140 a year (electricity here runs 15.55¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 39.8 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,592 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in Show Low, compared
Not every home in Show Low has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Show Low's answer improves. Switching saves about $1,314 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 6.1 years.
Where Show Low ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Show Low's winter puts it at rank 883 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2752 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step for 12,366 people in Show Low
About 12,366 people live in Show Low, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Show Low's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Show Low's 2.86 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Show Low's 6.8°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.