Heat Pump Payback in Show Low, AZ
Should Show Low switch to a heat pump?
In Show Low, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. That premium is recovered through $339 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 16.2 years. Show Low's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
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Landed on Show Low by mistake, or want to compare it against somewhere else? Search the other 3206 cities below.
Why Show Low's climate drives this number
4868 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Show Low has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 982 cooling degree days, where summers add a moderate cooling load. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 6.8°F here (coldest 2024 reading -38.2°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.86 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Show Low needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station Show Low Municipal Airport, 1.7 miles from Show Low, the closest one on record.
The yearly running costs in Show Low
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 4,310 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $800 a year on electricity. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 51 Mcf a year at $18.58 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,140 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 15.55¢/kWh). If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $408 behind.
What would change Show Low's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 24.3¢/kWh (it is 15.55¢ now) or gas drops below $11.88 per Mcf (now $18.58); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Show Low. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $339 a year saved, a difference under $2,373 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,390 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Show Low, compared
Not every home in Show Low has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Show Low's answer improves. Switching saves about $1,314 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 7.6 years.
Where Show Low ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Show Low's winter puts it at rank 883 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2752 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step if you live in Show Low
About 12,366 people live in Show Low, Arizona, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Show Low's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Show Low's 2.86 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Show Low's 6.8°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.