Heat Pump Payback in Shively, KY
Will a heat pump pay off in Shively, KY?
Shively technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. $5,500 is what Shively would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Shively's residents would see roughly $192 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 28.6 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Shively.
Checking a different city
Shively is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Shively's weather, in the numbers that matter
3192 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Shively has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 1992 cooling degree days, where summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 6.1°F here (coldest 2024 reading 3°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.85 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Shively sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. Source: NOAA station Louisville Intl-Standiford Fi, 4.3 miles from Shively, the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 2,836 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $653 a year on electricity. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 33 Mcf a year at $14.23 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $845 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 14.39¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $2,619 behind.
What would change Shively's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Shively if electricity rose past 24.2¢/kWh from 14.39¢, or gas fell under $8.45 per Mcf from $14.23. A useful quote test for Shively: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $1,920 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $1,344.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Shively heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Shively's answer improves. The saving here runs about $882 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 11.3 years.
Shively against the rest of the country
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Shively comes in at 1851 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 2312 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
What to do with this number in Shively
Shively, Kentucky is home to about 15,850 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Shively, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page, the 2.85 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Shively's 6.1°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.