Shawnee, OK: the heat pump payback math

Shawnee technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. $3,500 is what Shawnee would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Shawnee's residents would see roughly $232 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 15.1 years. Shawnee's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.

The climate behind Shawnee's payback figure

Shawnee has a mild winter by US standards — 2570 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 2546 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 10°F here (record low 2.8°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.94 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Shawnee sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. Source: NOAA station SHAWNEE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, 1.1 miles from Shawnee — the closest one on record.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 2,213 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $574 a year. That compares with roughly 27 Mcf a year of gas at Shawnee's 13.99 per-Mcf rate — about $807 a year — against a local electricity rate of 13.10¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 58.1 years, leaving the 15-year total $15 behind.

If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas

Gas isn't universal in Shawnee — many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Shawnee's answer improves. The saving here runs about $710 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 11.3 years.

Shawnee against the rest of the country

Shawnee lands at position 2101 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 1273 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.

Deciding what's next in Shawnee, OK

About 32,092 people live in Shawnee, Oklahoma, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.

Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.

More on how this number was built

Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Shawnee's 2.94 seasonal COP and payback figure. Shawnee's 10°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.