Heat pump vs. gas furnace in San Elizario, TX
In San Elizario, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). San Elizario's residents would see roughly $382 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 9.2 years. It's a genuine toss-up here — San Elizario's numbers don't point clearly either way.
How cold San Elizario actually gets
1672 heating degree days pile up here every year, so San Elizario has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 3565 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 21.9°F here (record low 21°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.23 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. San Elizario needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, EL PASO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, 17.4 miles from San Elizario.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,311 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $703 a year. San Elizario's gas rate of 19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 17 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $1,084 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 35.4 years; over 15 years the net position sits $2,226 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in San Elizario heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and San Elizario's answer improves. About $727 a year comes back this way, enough that the 11-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
How San Elizario compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, San Elizario's winter puts it at rank 2607 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 3175 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in San Elizario
San Elizario, Texas is home to about 10,128 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In San Elizario, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where San Elizario's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how San Elizario's 3.23 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. San Elizario's 21.9°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.