Heat Pump Payback in Rowlett, TX
Should Rowlett switch to a heat pump?
Rowlett technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. $5,500 is what Rowlett would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Rowlett's residents would see roughly $334 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 16.5 years. Rowlett's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Checking a different city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Rowlett. Look one up here.
The climate behind Rowlett's payback figure
1853 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Rowlett has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 2871 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. 15.8°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 9.5°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.08 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 15.8°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Rowlett. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Ralph M Hall Rockwall Municip, 6.7 miles from Rowlett.
The yearly running costs in Rowlett
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,523 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $641 a year. Rowlett's gas rate of $19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 19 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $976 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $485 behind.
What would change Rowlett's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 149.6¢/kWh (it is 16.15¢ now) or gas drops below $2.10 per Mcf (now $19.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Rowlett. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $334 a year saved, a difference under $2,338 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,340 within 10.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Rowlett heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Rowlett's answer improves. Switching saves about $717 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 13.9 years.
How Rowlett compares nationally
Rowlett lands at position 2506 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 573 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Rowlett
About 68,123 people live in Rowlett, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Rowlett's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page, the 3.08 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Rowlett's 15.8°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.