Heat Pump Payback in Provo, UT
Should Provo switch to a heat pump?
Provo technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. Provo's residents would see roughly $50 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 109.1 years. Provo's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
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The climate behind Provo's payback figure
Degree days tell the story here: Provo racks up 5203 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1246 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 12.9°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 12°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.01 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Provo sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from Provo Municipal Airport, the closest NOAA station, 4.5 miles out.
Provo's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 4,377 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $714 a year. Provo's gas rate of $10.19 per Mcf, applied to the 54 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $764 a year, against 13.12¢ per kWh for electricity. Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $4,744 behind.
What would change Provo's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 14.4¢/kWh (it is 13.12¢ now) or gas drops below $9.26 per Mcf (now $10.19); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Provo. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $50 a year saved, a difference under $350 pays back within 7 years here, and under $500 within 10.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Provo has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Provo's answer improves. The saving here runs about $1,227 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 8.2 years.
Where Provo ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Provo's winter puts it at rank 557 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 266 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step if you live in Provo
About 115,479 people live in Provo, Utah, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Provo's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Provo's 3.01 seasonal COP and payback figure. Provo's 12.9°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.