Should Port Angeles switch to a heat pump?
In Port Angeles, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. $3,500 is what Port Angeles would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $394 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 8.9 years. Whether that's worth it in Port Angeles depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Why Port Angeles's climate drives this number
5438 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Port Angeles has a cold winter that leans hard on heating equipment; the cooling side runs to 4 cooling degree days, where summers rarely ask much of an air conditioner. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 23°F here (record low 13.5°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.25 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Port Angeles sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from PORT ANGELES, the closest NOAA station, 0.5 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 4,237 kWh a year to keep it warm, for an electric bill near $605 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 57 Mcf a year at 17.62 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $999 a year (electricity here runs 14.27¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 34.3 years, leaving the 15-year total $2,403 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Port Angeles has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Port Angeles's answer improves. About $1,361 a year comes back this way, enough that the 5.9-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Port Angeles against the rest of the country
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Port Angeles comes in at 413 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1913 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
What to do with this number in Port Angeles
About 20,112 people live in Port Angeles, Washington, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Port Angeles's 3.25 seasonal COP and payback figure. Port Angeles's 23°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.