Should Pacifica switch to a heat pump?

Pacifica is a place where a heat pump genuinely costs more to operate than the alternative. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $1,000 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). The heat pump would cost about $30 more a year to run than the furnace it replaces — a premium with no payback. That's Pacifica's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.

Pacifica's weather, in the numbers that matter

2665 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Pacifica has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 90 cooling degree days, where summers rarely ask much of an air conditioner. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 39.9°F, against a record low of 35.1°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.39 for the recommended standard unit. Pacifica's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL A, the closest NOAA station, 6.2 miles out.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,991 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $679 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 28 Mcf a year at 22.01 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $649 a year (electricity here runs 32.83¢/kWh). Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to beyond the 15-year equipment life; over 15 years the net position sits $1,443 behind.

The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with

Not every home in Pacifica has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,575 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 3.5 years.

Pacifica against the rest of the country

Pacifica lands at position 2060 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 1120 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.

Deciding what's next in Pacifica, CA

Pacifica, California is home to about 37,056 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Pacifica, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.

Reading further on this page's numbers

Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Pacifica's 3.39 seasonal COP and payback figure. Pacifica is one of the cities where running costs land higher every year, not just slower to pay back — the guide to where this happens lays out why.