Oklahoma City, OK: the heat pump payback math
Oklahoma City technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). That premium is recovered through $207 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 16.9 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City's weather, in the numbers that matter
Oklahoma City has a mild winter by US standards — 2933 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2206 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 3.9°F, against a record low of 1°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.79 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Oklahoma City needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT, the closest NOAA station, 7.3 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Oklahoma City
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 2,662 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $595 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 31 Mcf a year at 13.99 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $802 a year (electricity here runs 13.10¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 65.3 years, for a 15-year net position $399 behind.
Electric resistance heat in Oklahoma City, compared
Gas isn't universal in Oklahoma City — many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Oklahoma City's answer improves. The saving here runs about $752 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 10.6 years.
Where Oklahoma City ranks in this dataset
Oklahoma City lands at position 1950 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 20 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step for 712,919 people in Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma is home to about 712,919 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Oklahoma City, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Oklahoma City's 2.79 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Oklahoma City's 3.9°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.