Nogales, AZ: the heat pump payback math
In Nogales, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. $3,500 is what Nogales would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $317 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 11 years. It's a genuine toss-up here — Nogales's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Nogales's weather, in the numbers that matter
Degree days tell the story here: Nogales racks up 2164 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 2414 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 19.9°F, against a record low of 19°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.18 for the recommended cold-climate unit. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Nogales — below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. These numbers come from NOGALES INTERNATIONAL ARPT, the closest NOAA station, 6.6 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,723 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $588 a year. Nogales's gas rate of 18.58 per Mcf, applied to the 23 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $905 a year, against 15.55¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 42.6 years, for a 15-year net position $1,258 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Nogales has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Nogales's answer improves. About $751 a year comes back this way, enough that the 10.7-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Nogales ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Nogales comes in at 2358 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1926 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Nogales
Nogales, Arizona is home to about 19,965 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Nogales, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Nogales's 3.18 seasonal COP and payback figure. At a 19.9°F design temperature, Nogales sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.