Heat Pump Payback in Millcreek, UT
Is a heat pump worth it in Millcreek?
Millcreek technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. $5,500 is what Millcreek would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Millcreek's residents would see roughly $110 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 50.2 years. Millcreek's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Checking a different city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Millcreek. Look one up here.
Why Millcreek's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Millcreek racks up 4667 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1804 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 19°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 12.2°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.16 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Millcreek sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from Salt Lake City International, the closest NOAA station, 9.5 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,740 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $692 a year. Millcreek's gas rate of $10.19 per Mcf, applied to the 49 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $802 a year, against 13.12¢ per kWh for electricity. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $3,856 behind.
The break-even point in Millcreek
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 16.8¢/kWh (it is 13.12¢ now) or gas drops below $7.94 per Mcf (now $10.19); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Millcreek. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $110 a year saved, a difference under $770 pays back within 7 years here, and under $1,100 within 10.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Gas isn't universal in Millcreek, many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Millcreek's answer improves. Switching saves about $1,165 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 8.6 years.
Where Millcreek ranks in this dataset
Millcreek lands at position 1025 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 611 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
What to do with this number in Millcreek
About 64,217 people live in Millcreek, Utah, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page, the 3.16 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Millcreek's 19°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.