Will a heat pump pay off in Markham, IL?

In Markham, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. $3,500 is what Markham would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Unfortunately the electric bill outweighs the gas bill it replaces by about $278 a year here, so the extra spend stays unrecovered. That's Markham's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.

How cold Markham actually gets

Markham has a real but manageable winter — 4971 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers add a moderate cooling load, at 864 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is -5.3°F, against a record low of -10.7°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.57 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Markham needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station LANSING MUNICIPAL AP, 9.2 miles from Markham — the closest one on record.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 4,898 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,074 a year. Markham's gas rate of 11.25 per Mcf, applied to the 52 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $796 a year, against 19.06¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs past the 15-year equipment life, for a 15-year net position $7,671 behind.

The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with

Not every home in Markham has gas service. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $1,539 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 5.2 years.

Markham against the rest of the country

Among 3206 cities, Markham's winter puts it at rank 786 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2928 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.

Next step for 11,290 people in Markham

Markham, Illinois is home to about 11,290 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Markham, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.

Where Markham's figure comes from

The methodology guide walks through exactly how Markham's 2.57 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Markham's -5.3°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.