Marion, AR: the heat pump payback math
This one's marginal in Marion: it only clears if you stay long enough. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. Marion's residents would see roughly $346 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 10.1 years. Whether that's worth it in Marion depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Why Marion's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Marion racks up 2736 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1964 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 8.1°F here (record low -6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.89 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Marion needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, WEST MEMPHIS MUNICIPAL APT, 5 miles from Marion.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 2,397 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $541 a year. That compares with roughly 28 Mcf a year of gas at Marion's 19.25 per-Mcf rate — about $887 a year — against a local electricity rate of 13.28¢/kWh. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 39 years; over 15 years the net position sits $1,687 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Marion has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $717 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 11.2 years.
How Marion compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Marion comes in at 2019 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 2583 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step for 13,524 people in Marion
About 13,524 people live in Marion, Arkansas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Every constant behind this page — the 2.89 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Marion's 8.1°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.