Manor, TX: the heat pump payback math
Manor sits right on the fence — how long you'll own the house decides this one. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. That premium is recovered through $304 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 11.5 years. Whether that's worth it in Manor depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Why Manor's climate drives this number
1053 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Manor barely has a winter to speak of; the cooling side runs to 3138 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 21.2°F here (record low 15.8°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.21 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Manor needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station AUSTIN EXECUTIVE AIRPORT, 2.9 miles from Manor — the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 831 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $566 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 11 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $870 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 44.5 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,053 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Manor has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Manor's answer improves. Switching saves about $521 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 15.4 years.
Manor against the rest of the country
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Manor comes in at 2874 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1812 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 21,500 people in Manor
About 21,500 people live in Manor, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Manor's 3.21 seasonal COP and payback figure. At a 21.2°F design temperature, Manor sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.