Should Los Altos switch to a heat pump?

Here in Los Altos, the honest answer is that a heat pump raises your annual running cost. $1,000 is what Los Altos would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Running costs here land $2 a year HIGHER than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. That's Los Altos's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.

How cold Los Altos actually gets

Degree days tell the story here: Los Altos racks up 2250 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers add a moderate cooling load, with 387 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 35.6°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 35.6°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.26 on the standard unit fit for this climate. Los Altos's winters don't get cold enough to need the cold-climate premium — a standard unit holds up fine. These numbers come from MOFFETT FEDERAL AIRFIELD, the closest NOAA station, 3.7 miles out.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,748 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $682 a year. That compares with roughly 23 Mcf a year of gas at Los Altos's 22.01 per-Mcf rate — about $680 a year — against a local electricity rate of 32.83¢/kWh. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs past the 15-year equipment life, for a 15-year net position $1,025 behind.

The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with

Gas isn't universal in Los Altos — many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,353 a year, which recovers the extra $5,500 spent going electric in roughly 4.1 years.

How Los Altos compares nationally

Los Altos lands at position 2306 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 1321 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.

Deciding what's next in Los Altos, CA

Los Altos, California is home to about 30,864 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Los Altos, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.

Reading further on this page's numbers

Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Los Altos's 3.26 seasonal COP and payback figure. Los Altos is one of the cities where running costs land higher every year, not just slower to pay back — the guide to where this happens lays out why.